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Chris Fry Chris Fry created this group on SportProjections.com.

 

2008 San Francisco Giants Preview and Predictions

Contributor: Eric Seidman, mvn.com/mlb-stats

2007 Record: 71-91

2007 Summary: Barry Bonds broke the all-time home run record forever immortalizing Mike Bacsik and putting to rest any talk of performance-enhancing drugs. Or stirring up talk of performance-enhancing drugs. I guess it depends if you're a San Francisco fan or not. The season proved to be the final chapter in his storied career in San Francisco. With the ageless wonder Bonds the Giants trotted out an otherwise ineffective and old lineup, complete with mega-investment Barry Zito heading the rotation.

Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum more than made up for Zito's struggles however both were shorted by run support and a lack of bullpen help. Cain proved to be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball as he went 7-16 while pitching very well in 24 of his 32 starts.

Throughout all of the Bonds hoopla it was seemingly lost that this team has no farm system, average veterans, and no real general direction. With Bonds gone they now lack an identity, as well.

2008 Key Additions: Aaron Rowand, Keiichi Yabu (?)

2008 Key Losses: Barry Bonds

2008 Starting Lineup:
1. Roberts
2. Durham
3. Winn
4. Molina
5. Rowand
6. Castillo
7. Aurilia
8. Bocock

2008 Starting Rotation: Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Valdez, Sanchez, Lowry-DL

2008 Closer: Brian Wilson

2008 MVP: Um... well... hm... Keiichi Yabu? In all seriousness, this team will need everyone to have career years just to reach the .500 mark.

The Giants will be successful if: they realize the current team cannot be successful and begin a rebuilding phase.

2008 Season Prediction: Last place, worst team in the NL. Cain will pitch well enough to win 18-20 games and will struggle to win 11. Zito will continue his struggles to the point that he's placed on the DL with an "injury." Aaron Rowand will come back down to Earth while in a pitcher's park and fans will wonder why he could not duplicate a career year from 2007 that he will never come close to again.

sfgate.com

Giants sign reliever Affeldt

The Giants have signed their first free agent this offseason, and while Jeremy Affeldt might not have the sex appeal of some of the bigger names on the market, the left-handed reliever could solve one of the team's greatest deficiencies last season. The...
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Giants sign reliever Affeldt

Manager Bruce Bochy expended a lot of breath in 2008 demanding that the Giants' walk-happy pitchers throw with more aggression. On Tuesday, the front office sent its own aggressive message by signing the first free agent of 2008, left-handed reliever Jeremy...
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Pujols wins NL MVP award, Howard finishes second

Albert Pujols views MVP voting a little differently these days. "You have to consider everything. You have to put all the numbers together," the St. Louis star said Monday after powering past Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard to win the award for the second...
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sfgate.com

Hot stove odds and ends

Filed by Giants beat writer Henry...
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UPDATE: Initial thoughts on Affeldt signing

From beat writer Henry Schulman: ...
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Free agent season begins

From Giants beat writer Henry Schulman...
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insidebayarea.com

contracosta.com

mercurynews.com

mlb.com

Renteria's rep negotiating with Giants

Renteria's rep negotiating with Giants

Giants heighten interest in Hudson

Giants heighten interest in Hudson

mvn.com/mlb-giants

Orlando Hudson

Orlando Hudson seems the type of player tailor-made to evoke my cunningly acerbic wit (or less charitably, my clever blogger know-it-all snark).  A 31 year old 2nd baseman whose offense is certainly a product of his home field and whose last season ended as a result of injury hardly strikes one as a desirable free agent target.   However, despite the obvious setup, I cautiously approve of the Giants' interest in Hudson.

Allow me to voice my concerns before I delve into why I like Hudson.  Baseball players not named Omar Vizquel peak as defenders in their early 20's.  The defensive decline which occurs proportionally with age may be gradual or abrupt but it is inevitable.   In terms of offense,  Hudson will not post an OPS above 800 (as he has the past several season) if he signs with the Giants.  Not only does he lose the offense inflating environs of Arizona but he also is convalescing from an injury that saps power.  He additionally had a subpar defensive season last year (more later).

I do, as previously mentioned, approve of the Giants interest in Hudson despite my voiced misgivings.   Orlando Hudson is a remarkable defensive player  He has posted the following +/- defensive numbers since 2003 (Credit to Chris at baycity ball for compiling these numbers):

Year   +/-
2003 +22
2004 +35
2005 +20
2006 +13
2007 +20
2008 -4

Since each whole number above 0 in this system represents .8 run saved, Hudson has saved at least 16 runs above average in 4 of the last 6 seasons.   In the presence of offensive adequacy, those numbers represent not only an elite player but an affordable one (a player with stellar offense and adequate defense would be amongst the highest paid in the league) .  Now, perhaps, his last season doesn't represent an aberration.  Perhaps age has sapped him of the qualities that made him so talented in the field.  But honestly, on the free agent market, every top tier player comes with risk.  I would rather pay Hudson 10 million/ year for 5 years than whatever bloated sum Teixeira receives.

Hot Stove report: Bay Area lures Sabathia, Pedroia builds case for big money, free agent predictions

Just a few weeks away from Major League Baseball's winter meetings, "The Pitch" fans the flames of the Hot Stove by shuffling through all of the latest CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixera and Jake Peavy reports.

Hosts Joe Aiello and Brandon Rosage also evaluate the MVP and Cy Young Awards and how the winners might be affected in the market today and down the line, including Boston's rising star Dustin Pedroia.

Listen in and participate via e-mail (thepitch@mvn.com) or in the comments.

And don't miss Brandon Rosage's new web video talk show "Boom, Outta Here," which spends its latest episode discussing Pedroia's shot at a new Red Sox deal.

Pitch F/X Audit: San Francisco Giants

If there was one thing that the San Francisco Giants did particularly well in 2008, it involved pitching.  Tim Lincecum emerged as one of the best pitchers in the entire sport, and at such a young age, is primed for several more seasons of similar quality.  Matt Cain continued to perform admirably while receiving next to no run support, meaning he has accrued a W-L record of 15-30 over the last two seasons while performing better than just about 80-85% of all National League starters.  Noah Lowry may have missed the season, but Jonathan Sanchez gave Giants fans hope that LinceCain could someday form LinceCainChez.

After these three, well, Barry Zito was... the new definition of Barry Zito.  His FIP of 4.72 was actually lower than the marks in 2006 and 2007, but his walk rate reached an all-time high.  While he never really struck many batters out, he was able to succeed by limiting walks as much as he could.  This year, Zito threw the least amount of pitches in the strike zone, but was one of the worst at inducng swings on pitches out of the zone.  Add it all up and you get a pitcher who couldn't possibly meet the expectations earned by his monster contract.

The bullpen was anchored by closer Brian Wilson, a flamethrower somewhat prone to the longball, who was hurt by a .336 BABIP.  Kevin Correia pitched both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, and the triumvirate of Tyler Walker, Keichii Yabu, and Jumpin' Jack Taschner--my nickname for him--performed quite often.  Brian Sabean has already gone out and added Jeremy Affeldt to the mix, who will, in all likelihood, become the team's closer when Wilson struggles next year.  They are also looking to bring in Joe Beimel, who would be a welcome addition as well, and help solidify a nice pitching staff.  If only they could score...

But anyways, as always, below are the links to the spreadsheets of splits:

Giants vs. LHH/RHH
Giants with/without Baserunners

I'll let the links speak for themselves, but one thing to note is that the Giants threw A LOT of fastballs.  In fact, only the Mets, Rockies, and Marlins threw a higher percentage of fastballs than the Giants.  Then again, when you have Lincecum, Cain, and Wilson, all of whom have plus fastballs, what else should be expected?

After we hit the ten-team mark with these year-in-reviews, I will post a data dump with everybody, sorted in different situations.  When this is all said and done, we will be able to see which pitchers changed their approach the most in different situations.

San Francisco Giants Forum

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