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2008 Cleveland Indians Preview and Prediction

Contributor: James Pete, Tribe Report

2007 Record: 96-66

2007 Summary: The Cleveland Indians reclaimed their 1990's position at the top of the A.L. Central Division. Whereas those 90's teams were led by incredible offense, this version of the Indians was dominated by starting pitching, and arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

Cleveland boasted Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia, who won 19 games, and was the horse of the league, and staff with 241 innings. Fausto Carmona also burst upon the scene as an ace-in-waiting, winning 19 games as well, with a team leading 3.06 ERA, which was 2nd in the league. A mid-season offensive slump cost both 20+ wins. Paul Byrd also surprised many by winning 15 games with smoke and mirrors. Jake Westbrook, and the combination of Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers were underwhelming as the #4 and #5 starters, although Aaron Laffey came on at the end of the year to claim the #5 slot.

The bullpen boasted two of the best set-up men in baseball in righty Rafael Betancourt and lefty Rafael Perez. Betancourt pitched nearly 80 innings, boasting a 1.47 ERA as the main set-up man to closer Joe Borowski. Joining him in the set up role was Rafael Perez, who brought a 1.78 ERA in 60 innings pitched. Joe Borowski was the new Tribe closer, and rewarded them with 45 saves that overshadowed his worse-than-pedestrian 5.07 ERA. Jensen Lewis also came on strong in August and September as a new presence in the pen.

The stars of the offense were undoubtedly Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. Martinez ascended to the captain of this team. His defense was much improved, and no doubt coincided with the improved pitching staff. Offensively, Martinez led the team in batting (.301), slugging (.505), doubles (40), HR's (25), RBI (114) and OPS (.879). What Martinez didn't lead, Sizemore did, leading in OBP (.390), Runs (118), hits (174), triples (5) and SB's (33). Ryan Garko (21 HRs, .289 ave.), Asdrubal Cabrera, Franklin Gutierrez and Jhonny Peralta also helped pick up the offensive slack. Kenny Lofton and Chris Gomez were re-added to the mix at the trade deadline to help fix a struggling offense.

The big news for the offense was that Travis Hafner had a let-down season, after becoming a perennial MVP candidate over the previous three seasons. His struggles seemed to accentuate an enigmatic Tribe offense that at times, seemed to either walk, or strike out, with nothing in between.

In the playoffs, the Indians breezed through the Yankees, and took a 3-1 lead against the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox, before their starting pitching couldn't match up against the meat of the Boston offense, and lost in 7 games.

2008 Key Losses: None of any significance. Kenny Lofton and Chris Gomez, 2 mid-season replacements, were allowed to leave, as was the diminished Trot Nixon.

2008 Indians Starting Lineup:
1. Grady Sizemore, CF
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
3. Travis Hafner, DH
4. Victor Martinez, C
5. Ryan Garko, 1B
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Franklin Gutierrez, RF
8. David Dellucci/Jason Michaels, LF
9. Casey Blake, 3B

2008 Indians Starting Rotation: C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee

2008 Indians Closer: Joe Borowski

2008 Indians MVP: Grady Sizemore—Sizemore is a superstar now, but is on the cusp of becoming something incredibly successful. Right now, Sizemore is on the verge of becoming a 30-30 player. Look for Sizemore to score over 130 runs, push 200 hits, hit at least 10 triples, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 30 SB, with a .300 average and a .400 OBP. Sizemore walked a career high 101 times last season, but also struck out a career high 155 times. Sizemore came into camp this year looking to cut down on his K's, while remaining aggressive at the plate. Look for a slight drop in K's, which will improve all other categories. A resurgent Travis Hafner should help Sizemore become the pre-eminent offensive player in baseball. Sizemore will continue to be one of the top two defensive center fielders in baseball.

The Indians will be successful if: C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona continue as aces, while Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee pitch to their potential, unlike last season. The bullpen will need to continue their excellence, and someone will have to step up and take the closer's role from Joe Borowski for when he inevitably starts giving up too many runs. Travis Hafner will need to return to form, with the rest of the offense continuing the status quo of last year. Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Garko, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta will need to continue their development offensively as well. Cleveland must figure out a better option for left field other than the Jason Michaels/David Dellucci platoon. Perhaps Ben Francisco, the AAA International League's batting champ last year, and Shin-Soo Choo can muscle their way onto the club as mid-season replacements. Still, this team is built around their rotation, and their bullpen. Without it, there's no way the Indians can take the next step to the world series.

2008 Season Prediction: The Indians are the most overlooked team in baseball. The team that won the same amount of games as the Red Sox, and took them to 7 games last year, is just an afterthought to the Detroit Tigers, and their vaunted offense. The truth of the matter is that this team is built to win. The pitching will be better than last year, as will the offense. If healthy, look for the Cleveland Indians to take the next step in their development, and make it to the World Series.

Standings Prediction:
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins

cleveland.com

Fans struggling to find hope in Indians disappointing season

AP photoHow much longer will C.C. Sabathia be wearing Tribe blue?There's little hope to be found amongst Tribe fans one day after their second straight extra innings loss to Chicago. The Indians currently stand at 37-48, 12.5 games behind the...

Opening Day post-game interviews with Sabathia, Blake and Wedge

Watch video interviews with C.C. Sabathia and Casey Blake following the Tribe's 10-8 win over the White Sox on Opening Day. Also, listen to manager Eric Wedge's post-game press conference. C.C. Sabathia talks about his performance and winning on Opening...

A Look Back: Our Week in Winter Haven in Review

Joey Morona/cleveland.comSpring training is a great opportunity to get up close and personal with Indians players. Here, Scott Elarton signs an autograph for some fans. Check out more photos from my spring training trip here and hereLooking back at my...

ohio.com

Minor-league management team stays put

Stability has been one of the trademarks of the Indians' farm system since Mark Shapiro became general manager. So it is not surprising that minor-league managerial assignments will remain unchanged in 2009.

Indians choose bullpen coach

Indians officials might never provide a complete explanation of why Luis Isaac was fired as bullpen coach after more than four decades of service with the club.

Indians ace Lee wins AL Cy Young

Cliff Lee is no fool. He is quick to say he would trade a Cy Young Award for a World Series ring, but he knows that being selected the best pitcher in the American League is no small tribute.

mlb.com

Indians moving slow with free agents

Indians moving slow with free agents

Tribe Minors staff features continuity

Tribe Minors staff features continuity

Tribe Report

Indians interested in Jose Valverde, Mills & Huff honored and a new 40-man roster

There seems to be a few newish rumors floating around involving a potential big splash for a team hunting for a closer.    According to the Houston Chronicle, closer Jose Valverde and 3B Ty Wigginton are both available in a trade.  Valverde has finished tops in saves in the NL the past two seasons.  He pitched a monstrous 72 IP this year, which is a ton for a closer, and saved 44 games.  He did blow seven games, and had a high ERA (3.38) and WHIP (1.82).  Here's the thing though...he's certainly top ten, and likely ranked ahead of closers such as Kerry Wood, J.J. Putz and every other closer listed that the Indians are thinking about.  He's eligible for arbitration this year, and will become a free agent next year.

Ty Wigginton could be the third baseman we need.  He's not overtly powerful, but has 25-homer power.  Trading for both might be something the Indians are discussing.

The Astros are looking for young pitching, and would likely start at guys like Adam Miller and David Huff.

Wigginton made about 4 1/2 million last season, and should get a nice raise in arbitration.  Valverde made slightly more at 4.7 million.  It would probably cost the Indians 12 of their 15 or so free million, which likely means the Indians would be dealing from that point on to add bulk to their rotation.

Will they make the move? Who knows, but it is an interesting possibility.

Baseball America Top 10: Adam Miller No Longer Top Indians Prospect

After four consecutive years of being slotted as Cleveland's number one overall prospect, Adam Miller's injury bug has him slipping in the latest rankings according to Baseball America. This should actually come as no surprise to anyone after how events unfolded this past summer.

Miller started behind the eight ball during spring training with blister problems on his pitching hand middle finger and eventually found his way into the Buffalo rotation a few weeks into the season, going 28.2 innings with a 1.88 ERA. He then again went on the disabled list with the callus problem in late-May. It was decided at that point that surgery was needed to repair the flexor tendon in the finger that was causing the issue, ending Miller's season.

Meanwhile, as the Indians struggled through the first-half of the season, new talent was acquired with the CC Sabathia and Casey Blake deals that added to the Indians farm system, and as we see today, put a few prospects on the big board ahead of the fallen right-hander Miller.

With that said, here is how the 2009 top 10 shakes out.

Indians hire a bullpen coach, talk closers and a quick look at Tribe prospects

There's a little bit of actual news on the North Shore today.  No, the Tribe didn't pull off a four-team deal, landing them a third baseman, second baseman, closer and starter, but there is some news:

  • The Cleveland Indians hired former Angels, Rays and Tigers pitching coach, Chuck Hernandez as their new bullpen coach, replacing Luis Isaac, who is slowly gaining mythical status in Cleveland.  I've already seen several comments in the land of the internet slamming the Hernandez hiring based on his former performance as a pitching coach.  I mean, how could the Indians hire a "failed Tiger" as a bullpen coach.  He's replacing Luis Isaac, who just might be seen around town carrying his two story tall axe and walking with his blue ox Babe.  I have no problem with the hire, and no problem with the fire.  Isaac was here forever, and now he's gone.  It's not like he hasn't hit the ground money.  Combine that with the fact that he made a whole lot of money, and more than likely isn't hurting right now in a climate in this country in which people WITH JOBS are.  As far as Hernandez, this guy isn't going to be our pitching coach, so who cares what he did in the role.  Would I have hired him?  Who knows, and who cares.  He's obviously respected in this league, so the Tribe could have done a lot worse. 

  • I was wondering about Chuck Hernandez' relationship with Freddy Garcia last season.  I'm not sure if that has anything to do with the Indians picking Garcia up, but maybe there's more to this than meets the eye.   As for Garcia, he was reportedly ready to make a start in the Venezuelen Winter League on Monday, but I haven't been able to find that stats. As soon as I have them, so will you.  I like Garcia as a cheap sign with good upside.

  • According to Anthony Castrovince, Mark Shapiro seems intent on signing a closer at some point this offseason, and it does appear as though the Indians are in discussions with Trevor Hoffman, who might consider signing a one-year deal with the Tribe.  Castrovince goes on to mention Kerry Wood as a possibility as we did here at Tribe Report earlier in the week, and agrees that it's not likely the Indians will sign him based on the likelihood that he will want a 3-4 year deal.  More interesting is that Castrovince mentions the possibility that the Pirates Matt Capps, the Mariners J.J. Putz and the Orioles George Sherrill may be available in a trade.  I don't know that I like any of those three, but at least it's some new names in the mix.

  •  Finally, Baseball America has released its new Cleveland Indians Top 10 Prospects.  I have to admit that there are a couple on there that surprised me a bit.  Check out Tribe Report over the next day or so for our analysis of the Top 10 from our new writer, Michael Taylor, and something from me on it as well in this Sunday's 'Sunday Drivin'.
No, we don't have the trade of the century, but we do have Chuck Hernandez!

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