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Chris Fry Chris Fry created this group on SportProjections.com.

 

2008 Atlanta Braves Preview and Predictions

Contributor: Alex Remington, www.chop-n-change.com

2007 Record: 84-78

2007 Summary: The Atlanta Braves improved on their poor 2006 campaign by finishing 6 games over .500, but it was still a disappointing result for fans of the most successful NL team of the past two decades.

It wasn't for lack of trying, however. A sharp offseason trade for Rafael Soriano and midseason blockbuster deal for Mark Teixeira depleted the farm system, but the team quickly restocked in the draft. Teixeira takes Andruw Jones's cleanup spot, which is a big improvement. Jones's seasonlong slump may have been the single biggest drag on the team, preventing them from seriously contending for the division. Career or near-career years were enjoyed by Matt Diaz, Edgar Renteria, rookie fill-in and new starting shortstop Yunel Escobar, and Chipper Jones, and the NL version of Teixeira. Second baseman Kelly Johnson, in his first year at the position, was one of the top offensive second basemen in the NL.
John Smoltz continued his late-career brilliance and Tim Hudson enjoyed his best year since coming to the Braves, but the rest of the rotation was near-disastrous. Number 3 starter Chuck James, hampered by an undiscovered rotator cuff tear, started 30 games but pitched only 160 innings of 100 ERA+ ball. With Mike Hampton out all year, Buddy Carlyle, Jo-Jo Reyes, Kyle Davies, Mark Redman, Lance Cormier, Anthony Lerew, and Jeff Bennett started 66 games in the number 4 and number 5 spots, putting up a 6.42 ERA.

2008 Key Additions: Yunel Escobar and Mark Teixeira will have starting jobs all year after being half-season players in 2007. They will likely make a far greater offensive contribution than stopgap center fielder Mark Kotsay, who will try to cover Andruw Jones' s old territory until star prospect Jordan Schafer is ready to take over. Tom Glavine is back for one final season in a Braves uniform, and there are some reports that Mike Hampton is finally healthy for the first time since August 2005. Jair Jurrjens, acquired in the Renteria trade, is set to fill the final spot in the rotation.

2008 Key Losses: Hall of Fame center fielder Andruw Jones is now a Dodger. Shortstop Edgar Renteria is now a Tiger. Closer Bob Wickman, who pitched brilliantly in 2006 but completely lost it midway through 2007, is out of a job.

2008 Starting Lineup:
1. Kelly Johnson 2B
2. Yunel Escobar SS
3. Chipper Jones 3B
4. Mark Teixeira 1B
5. Brian McCann C
6. Jeff Francoeur RF
7. Mark Kotsay CF
8. Matt Diaz LF

2008 Starting Rotation: John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Jair Jurrjens

2008 Closer: Rafael Soriano

2008 MVP: Mark Teixeira - As long as he stays healthy (which Chipper Jones, at this point in his career, cannot), he'll be the offensive star of a team that's as offensively dangerous as any in the league.

The Braves will be successful if: the Braves find stability in the starting rotation. The rotation, their biggest weakness last year, is still a worry: if 42-year-old Tom Glavine starts acting his age, Mike Hampton reinjures himself, and Chuck James is unable to come back from his own injuries, all very realistic possibilities, the Braves will once again have to scramble to find retreads and marginal prospects to eat innings. However, newcomer Jair Jurrjens appears to have the ability to hold his own at the bottom of the rotation, as does newly-slim Jeff Bennett, who can lie in wait at AAA until needed.

2008 Season Prediction: The Braves aren't a sure thing, but they have a strong team, and one with fewer weaknesses on paper at the start of the season than they've had in several years -- and arguably fewer weaknesses than the pitching thin Phillies and aging, brittle, prospect-thin Mets. Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are a strong back end of the bullpen, Smoltz and Hudson are a strong top of the rotation, and Jones and Teixeira are a strong middle of the order. As long as the injury bug doesn't strike the Braves harder than any other team in the league, and Johan Santana doesn't go 35-0, the Braves have a very strong chance to win the division.

Standings Prediction:
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

ajc.com

Braves release spring schedule

The Braves released their 2009 spring training schedule on Monday and the 35-game slate begins on Feb. 25. The Braves open against Detroit at Lakeland, Fla. The Braves open their home spring schedule the following day when they face Houston at Champion Stadium at Disney's Wide World of Sports in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.

Jordan Schafer injured; Braves offer Ohman

Mesa, Ariz. — Braves center-field prospect Jordan Schafer's winter-ball season in Mexico ended after he injured a finger when struck by a pitch. There was no broken bone and he's home in Florida, resting for a few weeks before beginning rehab. He should be fully recovered in January.

Braves prospect acquired in Teixeira deal shining

Mesa, Ariz. — While budding ace Tommy Hanson and behemoth slugger Tyler Flowers have made most of the headlines with eye-popping performances in the Arizona Fall League, two other Braves pitching prospects have also been quietly strengthening their own resumes in the desert.

mlb.com

Braves add four to 40-man roster

Braves add four to 40-man roster

Braves hold fifth annual Turkey Drop

Braves hold fifth annual Turkey Drop

mvn.com/mlb-braves

The Free Agent I Want: Derek Lowe

Over the past few months, I've mentioned a number of times the one free agent I really want the Braves to sign: Derek Lowe. He's a bit of an odd object of desire, a 35-year-old sinkerballer with a pretty sizable home/road split, a nice perk of pitching in Dodger Stadium, commonly known as one of the better pitcher's parks in all of baseball. I've explained why I don't want the number one free agent pitcher, C.C. Sabathia, because of health concerns over the duration of his contract. I think Derek Lowe is the best pitcher on the market, and here's why.

Perhaps his most extraordinary quality is his consistency: since he became a Dodger he's been very steady in innings pitched, success, and health. His ERA+ the past four years: 114, 124, 118, 131. Innings: 222, 218, 199 1/3, 211. Games started: 35, 34, 32, 34. In other words, he's the anti-A.J. Burnett: he gives you a steady number of innings, and while he doesn't have ace-level stuff, he's a #2 who is very reliable in his results. Considering that Ben Sheets and Burnett are known to be fragile, and that Ryan Dempster and Oliver Perez's careers have featured more mediocre or bad years than good ones, Lowe's consistency and health are strong points in his favor.

Moreover, Dodger Stadium does not always play like a pitcher's park. According to ESPN.com's park factors, in two out of the last four years, 2006 and 2007, it was actually a modest hitter's park, and Lowe posted good home numbers there anyway. (In 2005 and 2008 it was a pretty extreme pitcher's park, like you'd expect.) That suggests, at least, that he might succeed at Turner Field, itself no bandbox.

Similarly, while the tale that sinkerballers pitch better on short rest appears to be a myth, they are supposed to age well. (Remember that year Kevin Brown had in 2003?) In fact, Lowe has been improving his components: he actually decreased his walk and homer rates substantially this year, while keeping his strikeout rate pretty constant.

2008 may have been Lowe's career year, not coincidentally his walk year, and it may be unreasonable to assume that he'll repeat it. (He posted a stunning 2.30 ERA at home.) But even if his homers and walks bounce up a tick, and his strikeouts slip slightly, he'll still be a solid pitcher if healthy. In fact, he was strongest down the stretch: in August and September, he was 6-2 in 11 starts with a 2.27 ERA and 42 K against only 11 BB in 67 1/3 innings. Surprisingly, his GB% actually slipped from 65% to 60% last year, which could be a bad sign of things to come. But he's still got wiggle room, especially if he can maintain the drop in his walk and HR-rates, and as long as it stays above 60% he'll have plenty of success.

The age of our rotation last year, and its myriad attendant injuries, may be a reason many fans won't want to add another pitcher in his mid-30s. But there's a difference: John Smoltz has battled arm problems his entire career, Mike Hampton has been a walking injury for years, and Tom Glavine appeared done at the end of 2007. They were oldsters who were showing their age. Derek Lowe is still pitching like a man who has years ahead of him. Keith Law has him at #5 on his free agent rankings, just below Derek Lowe, and writes: "At 36, Lowe probably is headed for a decline, but he has shown no sign of it to date and probably has a good two -- or even three -- seasons left at something close to his level of 2006-2008." (Lowe will turn 36 on June 1.)

He's not worth a 5-year deal, but he likely won't get one. More likely, offers will be in the 4/$50 - 4/$60 range. It may be, as Law suggests, that the last year of that contract will be ugly. Until then, though, he's the one pitcher on the free agent list who is most likely to deliver what he'll be paid to do. We saw last year what injuries can do to decimate an otherwise promising roster, and how much it pays to invest in players who have proven to be good at staying healthy. Lowe's the right place to start.

2009 Top 50 Free Agents: 26-50

Last year, on November 6th, 2007, I released my top 50 Free Agents rankings and predictions. You can check out the archive on my old blog if you are interested.This year, a week later than usual, I've again ranked and predicted the destinations for the top 50 free agents of this year's free agent class. 2009 is very top-heavy, and there aren't many sexy names in the bottom 25, but that only made everything that much more unpredictable. Please note I also think the most action this off-season will be made through trades rather than big free agent contracts.

50: Chad Cordero - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim       
Signing Cordero would seem to make sense for LA, who are always looking to upgrade their bullpen. I anticipate they will let their all-star closer K-Rod walk this offseason, and Cordero could close if injury or ineffectiveness would make Jose Arrendondo a libability for the team. Cordero was great with the Nats early in his career, but doesn't really have closer stuff, ala Joe Borowski. He could thrive in a setup role on a good team, and LA seems like a good fit for him. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals       

49: Ken Griffey, Jr - Seattle Mariners       
Ken Griffey Jr is approaching his Willie Mays on the Mets days, when a great slugger is reduced to a shell of his former self playing in uniforms that never have, and never will, look right on him. I really have no idea where Junior will end up or how often he'll get the chance to play next year. I am only casting a sentimental vote that Seattle, who has nothing to play for next year anyway, will let The Kid replace Raul Ibanez and finish his career where it all started in The Emerald City. Runner-up: I hope retirement       

48: Rocco Baldelli - Tampa Bay Rays       
There has been some rumors lately of Baldelli leaving St. Petersburg and was even rumored to be coveted by the Red Sox. However, after the organization he was drafted by stood through him during his rehab from his extremely rare medical condition, I would expect Baldelli to have a sense of loyalty to the Rays. Expect him to resign, and hope for a full healthy year. Few remember, but Rocco was a sure-thing before injuries took away most of his speed and stamina. Runner-up: Philadelphia Phillies       

47: Kevin Millar - Los Angeles Dodgers       
It seems for quite some time now, LA has been building their team on veterans with a yearly infusion of a new face from the minor leagues. With Nomar Garciaparra a free agent and Jeff Kent likely retiring, Kevin Millar would fit well with this team. He can play good defense or even platoon with James Loney and provide some "glue" in the clubhouse. Millar only has a few seasons left in his career, but I wouldn't expect a multi-year deal here. There is a chance he'll try to land a full-time gig somewhere, but that seems unlikely. Runner-up: San Diego Padres       

46: Chan Ho Park - Los Angeles Dodgers       
From 1997-2001 Chan Ho Park won double digits games every year as a starter for the Dodgers. Then he signed a monster contract with the Rangers, was Barry Zito-bad, and then fell into relative obscurity until last year when he was able to revive his career with LA. I imagine Park will resign on the cheap, since he has already made over $81 million in his career, and no other team should be stupid enough to offer him anything, since he only pitches well in LA. The Dodgers could use the innings from the pen. Runner-up: Retirement       

45: Brad Wilkerson - Toronto Blue Jays       
I am continually biased toward Brad Wilkerson, who I saw playing in the minors for the Harrisburg Senators. I've always felt he never lived up to the expectations he created mashing balls on City Island and the early promise he showed once he made it to the show. He is still a great fourth option who can hit for power and little else, and is still only 32 years old. Toronto has one of the best outfields in the game, but little depth behind their stars. Wilkerson would be a good fit here. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates       

44: Nick Punto - Cincinnati Reds       
Nick Punto needs to make a career decision this year. He had one good season as a starter but at 31 isn't going to get much better. It would appear to be in his best interest to sign in the super-utility role he has excelled in for Minnesota last season. However, this may be his last chance to get a relatively big contract and an opportunity to prove himself as a starter. There is not a lot of depth at shortstop this year, so he may get that chance. The Reds seem like a good fit here. Runner-up: Kansas City Royals       

43: Jeremy Affeldt - Milwaukee Brewers       
I'll go out on a limb and say its unlikely the Brewers are going to bring back Eric Gagne. That being said, the Brewers will need some bodies in the bullpen and this isn't the best year for those types of pitchers. There are a lot of average starters available, but Affeldt is the one pitcher I think could make a difference in the pen for a team in 2009. His ERA has improved the past two years, and if he stays in the National League, I think that trend will continue. Runner-up: Oakland A's       

42: Damaso Marte - New York Yankees       
Editor's Note: I made this pick before it was news that the Yankees are likely to sign Marte to a three year-deal. I was not scared when they declined his option. Runner-up: New York Mets       

41: Juan Cruz - Chicago White Sox       
Juan Cruz had one of his best statistical seasons for the Diamondbacks last year and will be looking to cash in this year. The Diamondbacks have a ton of bullpen depth, and losing Cruz won't have much of an impact on their team in 2009. The White Sox bullpen was good last year, but I would imagine they'll try to sign an arm for middle relief/set-up this offseason. Then again, if Cruz pitches like he did in 2005 with Oakland (7+ ERA), we'll have a long list of fun Ozzie moments to look forward to. Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers       

40: Jason Varitek - Houston Astros       
And so it ends. My gut feeling is somehow, someway the Red Sox will resign Varitek. But my head tells me there is no way that is going to happen in a Scott Boras world. Houston is a team that doesn't really expect anything from their catcher offensively, Brad Ausmus has been able to have a career because of that belief. Tek would provide better defense and even a little more pop than the incumbent. Tek could make Houston's young starters better and be a role model in the clubhouse and community. Best wishes. Runner-up: Boston Red Sox       

39: Odalis Perez - Washington Nationals       
DC's Finest are years away from contending and continue to make puzzling front office decisions, from draft picks to contract extensions. For this team to resemble anything respectable in 2009, they will need to fill their starting rotation with dependable arms to help take the burden off their young starters. Perez makes sense here, if nothing else if he an affordable veteran who can eat some innings for the Nationals. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates       

38: Brad Penny - Milwaukee Brewers       
Why change the status-quo too much, right? If you are going to lose one spectacular when healthy but always an injury risk-style pitcher, just sign another to take his place. There is no doubt Brad Penny can be great, just two years ago he finished second in Cy Young voting. Milwaukee is going to lose both Sabathia and Sheets this off-season, and will need to go after an ace on the cheap. Penny shouldn't command as much as the top tier starters in this year's class. Runner-up: New York Yankees       

37: Eric Hinske - Philadelphia Phillies       
Eric Hinske is another super-utility style player who is available as a free agent. Hinske has played well for the past two seasons with Boston and Tampa Bay, and the former rookie of the year is still only 31 years old. I could see him moving to the National League after spending his entire career in the AL East. Philadelphia, which lacks depth in the infield and outfield positions, would be a terrific fit for Hinske, who hit 20 homeruns last year for Tampa Bay. Runner-up: Tampa Bay Rays       

36: Jon Garland - Pittsburgh Pirates       
The buzz around the Hot Stove is that the Pirates are dying for a veteran starter to sign a low cost, multi-year deal. Ha, which team isn't right? Anyway, I think Garland fits the bill here, he has pitched on winning teams for most of his career and would be able to help teach the young Pirates pitchers the right way of doing things. He could benefit from a switch to the National League, instead of the offense-heavy American league. Garland has won double-digit games every year since 2002. Runner-up: Milwaukee Brewers      

35: Braden Looper - Cleveland Indians       
Looper is another solid if not spectacular reliever who is available this offseason. After a career year in 2004 with the Mets, Looper has been consistent but never great the past three years with St. Louis. Cleveland will need to add some arms in the bullpen, and Looper makes sense since he won't be needed to play a significant role. I have him rated pretty high here based on my prediction, I think a change of scenery to the American League will help Looper regain some confidence. Runner-up: Boston Red Sox       

34: Mark Grudzielanek - Arizona Diamondbacks       
Grudzielanek is an underappreciated 2nd baseman, a career .290 career hitter who made just $4 million last year with Kansas City. He would fit as a cheap, veteran leader for the Diamondbacks, who need more professional hitters to surround their free-swinging young stars. There is always an outside chance that, at this point in his career, Grudzielanek could accept a utility role with a contender. Runner-up: Boston Red Sox   

33: Ivan Rodriguez - Boston Red Sox       
As mentioned earlier, I do not anticipate the Red Sox resigning Varitek. However, I also don't expect them to go into 2009 without a veteran backup plan no matter if they trade for another backstop or not. It's scary to think about how much the pitching staff might suffer under the offensive-minded Pudge, but if he is willing to accept a one year deal, it could be a good deal for both sides. Runner-up: New York Mets       

32: Paul Byrd - San Francisco Giants       
Byrd will get offers to stay in Boston as well as return to Cleveland, but I have a feeling he'll switch over the National League on a two-year deal with San Francisco. Byrd will be able to provide syringes, I mean, experience and stability to the back-end of the San Francisco's starting rotation. Still at effective pitcher at 38, Byrd pitched great down the stretch last season after it was learned he was tipping his pitches in early 2008. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates       

31: Mark Kotsay - Seattle Mariners       
Kotsay is another veteran who has solid during the end of the regular season and in the postseason for Boston and will look to cash in for 2009. Ideally, every member of Red Sox Nation would love Kotsay to come back and play behind Youk, Drew, and Lowell, but Boston has compiled some pretty impressive depth in the outfield and Lars Anderson may be ready to play 1B by midseason. The Mariners would be a good fit for Kotsay, he could replace Ibanez in the outfield or give stability at first place, allowing Jeff Clement to play his natural position behind the plate more often. Runner-up: St. Louis Cardinals       

30: Edgar Renteria - St. Louis Cardinals       
There is no secret that Rafeal Furcal is the big prize this offseason at shortstop, but I have a feeling Renteria is going to be the best the Cardinals will do this year. Renteria is what he is, and always seems to  play better in the National League, so that's a plus here. If he provides solid defense and league average numbers for the club, they should be back in contention for 2009. Or he'll play like the Renteria of the American League and be consistently booed until traded at midseason. Runner-up: San Francisco Giants       

29: Trevor Hoffman - San Diego Padres       
Editor's Note: News came out that San Diego has withdrawn their offer for Hoffman and he will be pitching elsewhere in 2009. However, I am not going to change my pick, just chalk this one up in the loss column and pretend I never wrote a paragraph about how its great to see such loyalty between player and team in today's sports world. Never happened. Runner-up: Detroit Tigers       

28: John Smoltz - Atlanta Braves       
A lot has been said about where John Smoltz will play in 2009. He has told the media he would be willing to play somewhere else, and last year said he would accept a trade if it was in the team's best interest. However, Smoltz only has a year, maybe two, left in his arm and I can't imagine him finishing it anywhere but Atlanta. Runner-up: Retirement       

27: Oliver Perez - Chicago Cubs       
Although I believe they will resign Kerry Wood, I think the Cubs will struggle to resign some of their other starters, leaving a hole in the middle of their rotation. Enter Oliver Perez, the solid if not spectacular pitcher who is still only 27. Perez has won double digit games for the Mets the past two years, averaging around 180 IP. If he can duplicate those numbers pitching in the fourth spot for Chicago, he'll be a steal. Runner-up: Pittsburgh Pirates       

26: Kerry Wood - Chicago Cubs       
Editor's Note: As with Hoffman, I will not change this pick although its obvious Wood will not sign with the Cubs at this point. Runner-up: Texas Rangers       

TOP 100 - Here is a list of players, in no specific order, that round out my top 100 free agents.
Mark Loretta, Juan Uribe, Bob Howry, Brian Giles, Alan Embree, Brandon Lyon, Dennys Reyes, Eric Gagne, Frank Thomas, Garret Anderson, Greg Maddux, Gregg Zaun, Hank Blalock, Jeff Kent, Joe Beimel, Luis Gonzalez, Miguel Olivo, Mike Cameron, Paul Lo Duca, Salomon Torres, Trever Miller, Scott Podsednik, Adam Everett, Al Reyes, Carl Pavano, Jason Isringhausen, Corey Patterson, Daryle Ward, David Eckstein, Doug Mientkiewicz, Gabe Kapler, Guillermo Mota, Jason Jennings, Jason Michaels, Jay Payton, Jerry Hairston Jr., Jim Edmonds, Juan Rincon, Kevin Mench, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, Matt Clement, Mike Hampton, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Richie Sexson, Sean Casey, Tadahito Iguchi, Darren Oliver, Doug Brocail, Russ Springer, Brian Shouse, David Weathers, Moises Alou, Aaron Boone, Alex Cintron, Alex Cora, Arthur Rhodes, Bartolo Colon, Brad Ausmus, Brendan Donnelly, Casey Fossum, Cesar Izturis, Chad Fox, Chad Moeller, Chris Gomez, Cliff Floyd, Craig Counsell, Craig Monroe, Curt Schilling, Damion Easley, David Ross, Eddie Guardado, Emil Brown, Felipe Lopez, Glendon Rusch, Greg Norton, Henry Blanco, Horacio Ramirez, Jamey Wright, Jason Johnson, Javier Valentin, Joe Borowski, Joe Crede, Johnny Estrada, Jon Lieber, Jose Vidro, Josh Bard, Josh Fogg, Juan Rivera, Julian Tavarez, Keith Foulke, Kenny Rogers, Kenshin Kawakami, Kip Wells, Koji Uehara, Kris Benson, Livan Hernandez, Luis Ayala, Mark Hendrickson, Matt Herges, Matt Wise, Michael Barrett, Miguel Cairo, Mike Lamb, Mike Lincoln, Mike Sweeney, Mike Timlin, Omar Vizquel, Orlando Hernandez, Paul Bako, Ramon Vazquez, Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia, Rodrigo Lopez, Roger Clemens, Ron Villone, Rudy Seanez, Russell Branyan, Scott Eyre, Sergio Mitre, Shawn Chacon, Shawn Estes, Sidney Ponson, Toby Hall, Tom Glavine, Tom Gordon, Tomohiro Nioka, Tony Clark, Will Ohman, Willie Bloomquist


The Deal's Off (For Now)

AJC:
After more than a month of negotiations, the Braves have called off their proposed blockbuster deal with the San Diego Padres for 2007 Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, Braves general manager Frank Wren told the Journal-Constitution on Friday.

The Padres wanted too much for the star pitcher, Wren said. "We reached the point where we made the decision that we just didn't feel like there was a deal that we could feel comfortable with," Wren said.


Look, the deal wasn't a fait accompli even when it seemed all but inked; I don't think this announcement means the deal is irrevocably off. Jake Peavy's on the block until Kevin Towers succeeds in trading him, and the Braves are still an attractive trading partner -- as long as Towers can temper his demands. In the meantime, the Braves will be pursuing other items on their wish list. Right now, that list appears to be headlined by Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett. I've been vocal in my preference for Lowe, as well as Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn. Who do you want to see us get? How do you feel about the Peavy talks being suspended?

bravesblast.com

Braves End Peavy Talks

As reported by the AJC this afternoon, the Braves have ended negotiations with the Padres for pitcher Jake Peavy.  Frank Wren personally informed the Padres’ GM that Braves were actively pursuing starting pitching for the 2009 season and could no longer wait on the Padres to make a decision regarding the trade offer that was [...]

Congrats, Phillies.

The Phillies won it all. We pulled for the Rays. We wanted them to win. We watched a weird, short, continuation of a previous game. They won anyways. Jimmy Rollins is cocky, but I’ll let it go just for one night. Congratulations. Watch out next year, though. The Braves will be back.

Gwinnett Braves’ Mascot Tryouts Nov 18

Get out there and make a fool of yourself - who knows, you could become the first Gwinnett Braves Mascot!  You, yes, you (!) could become Chopper the groundhog. Think of the possibilities! Get a picture with the big league third baseman? Chipper and Chopper. Add in Brian McCann, known for his weight? It’d be [...]

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